As of June 2024, it’s been about 18 months since was released by and the world started talking a lot more about artificial intelligence. Much has happened since: tech giants like and have released large language models of their own, newer organizations like and have proven to be serious contenders as well, innumerable startups have begun building on top of their APIs, everyone is for powerful Nvidia GPUs, papers appear on at a breakneck pace, demos circulate of and powered by LLMs, and it seems like are finding their way into all aspects of online life (to varying degrees of success). In parallel to the LLM race, there’s been rapid development in image generation via diffusion models; and are displaying increasingly impressive results that often stump humans on social media, and with the progress from , , and , it seems like high-quality video generation is right around the corner as well. There are ongoing debates about when “AGI” will arrive, what “AGI” even means, the merits of open vs. closed models, value alignment, superintelligence, existential risk, fake news, and the future of the economy. Many are concerned about jobs being lost to automation, or excited about the progress that automation might drive. And the world keeps moving: chips get faster, data centers get bigger, models get smarter, contexts get longer, abilities are augmented with tools and vision, and it’s not totally clear where this is all headed. If you’re following “AI news” in 2024, it can often feel like there’s some kind of big new breakthrough happening on a near-daily basis. It’s a lot to keep up with, especially if you’re just tuning in.
截至 2024 年 6 月,自 OpenAI 发布 ChatGPT 以来已经过去了大约 18 个月,世界开始更多地谈论人工智能。此后发生了很多事情:Meta 和 Google 等科技巨头发布了自己的大型语言模型,Mistral 和 Anthropic 等较新的组织也被证明是有力的竞争者,无数初创公司开始在他们的 API 基础上构建,每个人都在争夺强大的 Nvidia GPU、论文以极快的速度出现在 ArXiv 上、由 LLMs 驱动的物理机器人和人工程序员的演示在流传,聊天机器人似乎正在寻找进入在线生活的各个方面的方法(在不同程度上)的成功)。与LLM竞赛同时进行的,通过扩散模型生成图像也取得了快速发展; DALL-E 和 Midjourney 正在展示越来越令人印象深刻的结果,这些结果常常在社交媒体上难倒人们,随着 Sora、Runway 和 Pika 的进步,高质量视频生成似乎也指日可待。关于“AGI”何时到来、“AGI”到底意味着什么、开放模型与封闭模型的优点、价值一致性、超级智能、存在风险、假新闻和经济的未来,一直存在争论。许多人担心自动化会导致工作岗位流失,或者对自动化可能推动的进步感到兴奋。世界在不断发展:芯片变得更快,数据中心变得更大,模型变得更智能,上下文变得更长,能力通过工具和愿景得到增强,但目前尚不完全清楚这一切的发展方向。如果您在 2024 年关注“人工智能新闻”,您通常会感觉几乎每天都会发生某种重大的新突破。有很多事情需要跟上,尤其是当你刚刚收听时。